Comparative analysis of life expectancy of the population in Russia, the Volga Federal District, and Samara oblast in the context of national demographic goals

  • Authors: Frolov S.A.1,2,3, Zolotarev P.N.1,2,3, Grabozdin Y.P.1,2,3, Badeyan V.A.1,2,3,4, Burenkov E.S.1,2,3,4, Zolotarev I.P.1,2,3,5
  • Affiliations:
    1. Samara Regional Clinical Oncology Center, Samara, Russia
    2. Reaviz University, Saint Petersburg, Russia
    3. Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia
    4. Reaviz Medical University, Samara, Russia
    5. Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia
  • Issue: No 2 (2026)
  • Pages: 162-168
  • Section: Articles
  • URL: https://remedium-journal.ru/journal/article/view/1920
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.32687/1561-5936-2026-30-2-162-168
  • Cite item

Abstract


Improving life expectancy and quality of life is a key priority of state social policy, enshrined in the strategic documents of the Russian Federation. In light of the new national goals formulated in Presidential Decree No. 309 dated 07.05.2024, comprehensive monitoring of demographic indicators becomes a tool for assessing the effectiveness of healthcare and socio-economic measures. The aim of the study was to conduct a retrospective comparative analysis of the dynamics of life expectancy at birth (LE), life expectancy at age 55 (LE-55), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) in the Russian Federation, the Volga Federal District, and the Samara Region for the periods from 1990 to 2024 to identify regional characteristics and trends. The work used data from the Federal State Statistics Service. The analysis of LE dynamics (1990—2023) was conducted with a breakdown by sex and type of settlement (urban/rural population). Indicators of LE-55 (2018—2023) and HALE (2019—2024) were examined. Statistical processing included linear regression analysis to estimate average annual rates of change, Student's t-test to test trend significance, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and pairwise comparison methods to assess intergroup differences. It was established that in the Russian Federation for 1990—2023, a U-shaped LE trend was identified with an average annual increase of +0.18 years (p < 0.001). The gender gap remained at the level of 10—12 years, the urban-rural gap at 1.2—1.5 years. The dynamics in the Volga Federal District mirrored the all-Russian trend with a smaller amplitude of fluctuations. The Samara Region demonstrated a unique profile: a shallower decline in the 1990s, an earlier recovery, the smallest drop in LE during the COVID-19 pandemic (−0.4 years vs. −1.76 years in the RF), and the smallest urban-rural gap (0.69 years in 2023). However, the region recorded one of the highest gender gaps in the country (11.07 years in 2023). Analysis of LE-55 revealed a V-shaped trend related to the pandemic, with the Samara Region showing the smallest decline (-0.88 years) and the most pronounced recovery. The HALE indicator in the Samara Region grew at an average annual rate of +0.65 years (p = 0.03), which is the highest among the compared regions, reaching leading positions by 2023—2024 (63.4 years). Thus, the identified specific medico-demographic profile of the Samara Region is characterized by high resilience to crises and significant potential for improving the quality of life. However, to achieve national goals (78 years by 2030), the critical limiting factors remain the high level, structure, and causes of mortality, especially among the male population. The obtained data substantiate the need for an in-depth analysis of mortality as a key determinant of life expectancy for the development of targeted regional programs.

About the authors

Sergey A.¹ Frolov

Samara Regional Clinical Oncology Center, Samara, Russia; Reaviz University, Saint Petersburg, Russia; Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia

Email: frol_ser@mail.ru

Pavel N.² Zolotarev

Samara Regional Clinical Oncology Center, Samara, Russia; Reaviz University, Saint Petersburg, Russia; Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia

Email: zolotareff@list.ru

Yuri P.³ Grabozdin

Samara Regional Clinical Oncology Center, Samara, Russia; Reaviz University, Saint Petersburg, Russia; Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia

Email: grabozdinyu.p@sseu360.ru

Vardges A. Badeyan

Samara Regional Clinical Oncology Center, Samara, Russia; Reaviz University, Saint Petersburg, Russia; Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia; Reaviz Medical University, Samara, Russia

Email: badeyanv@mail.ru

Evgeny S. Burenkov

Samara Regional Clinical Oncology Center, Samara, Russia; Reaviz University, Saint Petersburg, Russia; Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia; Reaviz Medical University, Samara, Russia

Email: evgburenkov@mail.ru

Ilya P. Zolotarev

Samara Regional Clinical Oncology Center, Samara, Russia; Reaviz University, Saint Petersburg, Russia; Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia; Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia

Email: i.zolotareff@mail.ru

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